Vote counting is continuing across key electorates in the Adelaide Hills, Murraylands and South Coast, with several races still too close to call and likely to be decided by preferences.
The regional seat of Hammond is shaping as a potential gain for One Nation according to ABC analysis. Candidate Robert Roylance is narrowly trailing Labor’s Simone Bailey on first preferences, but is expected to benefit from preference flows from both the Liberal Party and independent candidate Airlie Keen. If those flows follow current estimates, One Nation is likely to take the seat.
A similar story is unfolding in MacKillop, where One Nation candidate Jason Virgo is leading Liberal candidate Rebekah Rosser by more than 12 percentage points. With both Labor and outgoing independent MP Nick McBride polling around 15 per cent, their preferences are expected to play a decisive role in the final outcome.
In the Adelaide Hills, the seat of Heysen remains on a knife edge. Liberal deputy leader Josh Teague has regained a narrow lead of 80 votes against Labor’s Marisa Bell. However, the final result will depend on the counting of postal and declaration votes in the coming days.
Neighbouring Kavel is also shaping as a preference contest, most likely between Labor and an independent candidate. Early indications suggest the independent could be in a strong position if that pairing holds, although it remains possible the Liberal Party or One Nation could still shift the final two-candidate count.
On the South Coast, the seat of Finniss remains highly competitive in a rematch between Liberal MP David Basham and independent Lou Nicholson. Nicholson is currently ahead on the primary vote, but a strong early voting result for Basham in Victor Harbor has yet to flow through to preference counts, meaning the margin could narrow.
Analysts say there is also a slim chance Labor could come into contention in Finniss depending on how preferences are distributed, potentially complicating the count further.
With several seats still in play and preference flows yet to be finalised, results across the region are expected to remain uncertain for several days.
